Entrants

player deck
FrozenStorm Nightmare
Bomber678 [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength
zhavier [Blood]/Feral/Strength
charnel_mouse [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline
EricF [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing
CarpeGuitarrem MonoRed
Nekoatl [Demonology/Disease]/Truth
Nopethebard MonoRed
hardy83 [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse
Unity [Future/Present]/Peace
Steve44 [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline
bansa [Finesse]/Blood/Fire

Completed matches

round player1 player2 deck1 deck2 victor victory
1 Bomber678 Steve44 [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline Bomber678 normal
1 bansa Nopethebard [Finesse]/Blood/Fire MonoRed bansa normal
1 Unity CarpeGuitarrem [Future/Present]/Peace MonoRed Unity normal
1 Nekoatl zhavier [Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Blood]/Feral/Strength zhavier normal
1 FrozenStorm hardy83 Nightmare [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse FrozenStorm normal
1 charnel_mouse EricF [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing charnel_mouse normal
2 Bomber678 Unity [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Future/Present]/Peace Bomber678 normal
2 zhavier FrozenStorm [Blood]/Feral/Strength Nightmare zhavier normal
2 Steve44 Nopethebard [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline MonoRed Steve44 normal
2 CarpeGuitarrem charnel_mouse MonoRed [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline CarpeGuitarrem normal
2 hardy83 Nekoatl [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Demonology/Disease]/Truth hardy83 normal
3 zhavier Bomber678 [Blood]/Feral/Strength [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength Bomber678 normal
3 charnel_mouse Unity [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Future/Present]/Peace charnel_mouse normal
3 hardy83 bansa [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Finesse]/Blood/Fire bansa normal
3 FrozenStorm CarpeGuitarrem Nightmare MonoRed FrozenStorm normal
3 Steve44 Nekoatl [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Demonology/Disease]/Truth Steve44 normal
4 bansa zhavier [Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Blood]/Feral/Strength zhavier normal
4 charnel_mouse Bomber678 [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength Bomber678 normal
4 Unity FrozenStorm [Future/Present]/Peace Nightmare FrozenStorm normal
4 CarpeGuitarrem Steve44 MonoRed [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline CarpeGuitarrem normal
4 Nopethebard hardy83 MonoRed [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse hardy83 forfeit
5 Bomber678 FrozenStorm [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength Nightmare Bomber678 normal
5 Steve44 bansa [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Finesse]/Blood/Fire bansa normal
5 zhavier charnel_mouse [Blood]/Feral/Strength [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline zhavier normal
5 CarpeGuitarrem hardy83 MonoRed [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse CarpeGuitarrem normal
6 bansa Bomber678 [Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength bansa normal
6 zhavier CarpeGuitarrem [Blood]/Feral/Strength MonoRed zhavier normal
7 Bomber678 zhavier [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Blood]/Feral/Strength Bomber678 normal
7 FrozenStorm bansa Nightmare [Finesse]/Blood/Fire bansa normal
8 Bomber678 bansa [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Finesse]/Blood/Fire Bomber678 normal
9 bansa zhavier [Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Blood]/Feral/Strength bansa normal

Matchup plots

Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)

Deck only

Overall

Matchup tables

Deck-only

D1 D2 matchup fairness
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Future/Present]/Peace 0.499 0.998
MonoRed [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.499 0.997
MonoRed [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.502 0.996
[Future/Present]/Peace [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.504 0.993
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.495 0.991
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.507 0.986
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.511 0.978
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.512 0.975
MonoRed [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.513 0.973
MonoRed [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.484 0.968
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing Nightmare 0.483 0.966
[Blood]/Feral/Strength Nightmare 0.517 0.966
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Future/Present]/Peace 0.483 0.966
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.518 0.964
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Future/Present]/Peace 0.518 0.963
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.519 0.961
[Future/Present]/Peace MonoRed 0.480 0.960
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.525 0.951
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.475 0.949
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Future/Present]/Peace 0.526 0.949
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.473 0.947
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.527 0.945
[Future/Present]/Peace [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.471 0.942
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Future/Present]/Peace 0.529 0.941
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Future/Present]/Peace 0.530 0.939
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.470 0.939
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.531 0.939
Nightmare [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.531 0.938
[Future/Present]/Peace [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.531 0.938
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline Nightmare 0.468 0.936
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.533 0.934
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.534 0.932
Nightmare [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.534 0.932
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.466 0.932
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.465 0.930
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire Nightmare 0.537 0.927
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire MonoRed 0.463 0.926
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.537 0.926
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.540 0.921
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength MonoRed 0.542 0.916
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.542 0.916
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.542 0.916
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.543 0.913
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.546 0.907
MonoRed [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.547 0.905
[Future/Present]/Peace [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.449 0.899
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.551 0.898
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength Nightmare 0.552 0.896
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.444 0.889
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline Nightmare 0.442 0.884
[Future/Present]/Peace Nightmare 0.441 0.882
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.559 0.882
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.441 0.881
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Future/Present]/Peace 0.561 0.878
MonoRed Nightmare 0.563 0.874
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.436 0.871
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.571 0.857
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.578 0.844
MonoRed [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.579 0.842
[Blood]/Feral/Strength MonoRed 0.581 0.838
Nightmare [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.582 0.835
MonoRed [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.416 0.832
[Future/Present]/Peace [Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.415 0.831
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.415 0.829
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.586 0.828
Nightmare [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.586 0.827
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.590 0.821
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.591 0.818
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.594 0.812
Nightmare [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.595 0.810
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse Nightmare 0.597 0.806
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.599 0.802
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.601 0.798
[Blood]/Feral/Strength [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.602 0.797
MonoRed [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.602 0.795
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.605 0.791
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.605 0.791
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.606 0.788
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.608 0.785
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.608 0.785
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.608 0.785
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.611 0.778
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.613 0.774
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.617 0.766
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.618 0.765
[Future/Present]/Peace [Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.619 0.762
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth Nightmare 0.380 0.760
Nightmare [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.624 0.753
MonoRed [Future/Present]/Peace 0.625 0.750
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.629 0.742
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse MonoRed 0.632 0.735
[Future/Present]/Peace [Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing 0.364 0.728
Nightmare [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.638 0.724
Nightmare [Future/Present]/Peace 0.639 0.722
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.645 0.710
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.656 0.688
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.657 0.685
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.663 0.674
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline MonoRed 0.664 0.673
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth MonoRed 0.667 0.667
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Future/Present]/Peace 0.668 0.663
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.670 0.661
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing MonoRed 0.686 0.629
[Future/Present]/Peace [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.691 0.618
Nightmare MonoRed 0.693 0.613
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.694 0.612
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline MonoRed 0.706 0.588
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse [Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.707 0.586
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.714 0.571
Nightmare [Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.741 0.518

Overall

P1 P2 matchup fairness
Steve44 Unity 0.503 0.995
Bomber678 Unity 0.503 0.993
Unity charnel_mouse 0.496 0.992
charnel_mouse Steve44 0.513 0.973
Nekoatl hardy83 0.519 0.962
hardy83 Bomber678 0.520 0.959
FrozenStorm zhavier 0.523 0.954
Unity Steve44 0.525 0.949
charnel_mouse Unity 0.463 0.926
bansa FrozenStorm 0.541 0.919
CarpeGuitarrem Nekoatl 0.455 0.911
charnel_mouse Bomber678 0.555 0.890
Steve44 charnel_mouse 0.557 0.887
CarpeGuitarrem hardy83 0.431 0.862
Steve44 bansa 0.429 0.858
Unity Nekoatl 0.571 0.857
CarpeGuitarrem Steve44 0.428 0.856
hardy83 Unity 0.423 0.845
zhavier FrozenStorm 0.580 0.840
CarpeGuitarrem Unity 0.419 0.838
zhavier bansa 0.581 0.837
Steve44 Bomber678 0.584 0.831
hardy83 charnel_mouse 0.584 0.831
Nekoatl Bomber678 0.404 0.807
Bomber678 hardy83 0.597 0.806
Bomber678 Steve44 0.598 0.804
charnel_mouse Nekoatl 0.598 0.804
Bomber678 charnel_mouse 0.603 0.794
bansa zhavier 0.396 0.792
CarpeGuitarrem charnel_mouse 0.392 0.785
bansa EricF 0.391 0.782
hardy83 Nekoatl 0.610 0.780
FrozenStorm bansa 0.611 0.778
Steve44 zhavier 0.383 0.765
Steve44 Nekoatl 0.620 0.760
hardy83 Steve44 0.622 0.756
charnel_mouse bansa 0.374 0.748
Unity Bomber678 0.627 0.746
Nekoatl Unity 0.371 0.742
FrozenStorm EricF 0.367 0.735
Bomber678 Nekoatl 0.648 0.704
EricF FrozenStorm 0.649 0.701
Nekoatl charnel_mouse 0.345 0.689
zhavier EricF 0.342 0.684
Nekoatl Steve44 0.337 0.673
Unity bansa 0.335 0.670
charnel_mouse zhavier 0.327 0.654
Unity CarpeGuitarrem 0.675 0.651
hardy83 bansa 0.324 0.648
Bomber678 bansa 0.323 0.646
Bomber678 FrozenStorm 0.320 0.640
EricF zhavier 0.682 0.637
hardy83 FrozenStorm 0.314 0.628
hardy83 zhavier 0.311 0.623
Nekoatl CarpeGuitarrem 0.701 0.598
charnel_mouse hardy83 0.705 0.591
bansa Unity 0.710 0.580
Bomber678 CarpeGuitarrem 0.714 0.573
Steve44 hardy83 0.716 0.569
hardy83 CarpeGuitarrem 0.717 0.567
bansa Bomber678 0.720 0.560
Steve44 FrozenStorm 0.276 0.552
CarpeGuitarrem Nopethebard 0.730 0.539
Unity hardy83 0.733 0.534
Nekoatl bansa 0.262 0.525
EricF bansa 0.739 0.521
Unity FrozenStorm 0.257 0.515
CarpeGuitarrem Bomber678 0.255 0.511
Bomber678 zhavier 0.253 0.505
zhavier Bomber678 0.748 0.504
FrozenStorm Steve44 0.757 0.486
zhavier Steve44 0.758 0.485
Nopethebard CarpeGuitarrem 0.242 0.484
charnel_mouse FrozenStorm 0.231 0.462
bansa Steve44 0.774 0.453
Unity zhavier 0.225 0.451
Nopethebard Nekoatl 0.225 0.450
Nopethebard Steve44 0.224 0.447
zhavier Unity 0.783 0.435
Nopethebard hardy83 0.215 0.431
Nekoatl zhavier 0.211 0.423
Nopethebard Unity 0.210 0.420
zhavier charnel_mouse 0.793 0.414
FrozenStorm Bomber678 0.796 0.409
FrozenStorm Unity 0.799 0.402
Steve44 CarpeGuitarrem 0.800 0.401
charnel_mouse CarpeGuitarrem 0.802 0.396
hardy83 EricF 0.193 0.386
bansa charnel_mouse 0.809 0.382
Bomber678 EricF 0.191 0.382
bansa hardy83 0.818 0.365
Nopethebard charnel_mouse 0.179 0.359
CarpeGuitarrem FrozenStorm 0.177 0.354
Steve44 EricF 0.177 0.354
bansa CarpeGuitarrem 0.823 0.353
FrozenStorm charnel_mouse 0.823 0.353
EricF Steve44 0.829 0.342
bansa Nekoatl 0.830 0.340
FrozenStorm Nekoatl 0.841 0.318
CarpeGuitarrem bansa 0.152 0.304
zhavier Nekoatl 0.852 0.297
zhavier hardy83 0.852 0.296
Unity Nopethebard 0.853 0.293
charnel_mouse EricF 0.144 0.287
Nekoatl Nopethebard 0.871 0.259
CarpeGuitarrem zhavier 0.126 0.252
EricF Bomber678 0.876 0.249
hardy83 Nopethebard 0.877 0.245
Bomber678 Nopethebard 0.879 0.242
Unity EricF 0.119 0.237
Nekoatl FrozenStorm 0.114 0.228
EricF charnel_mouse 0.886 0.228
Nopethebard Bomber678 0.107 0.214
FrozenStorm hardy83 0.894 0.212
EricF Unity 0.896 0.209
zhavier CarpeGuitarrem 0.910 0.179
EricF Nekoatl 0.912 0.177
Steve44 Nopethebard 0.914 0.172
charnel_mouse Nopethebard 0.923 0.155
CarpeGuitarrem EricF 0.077 0.153
EricF hardy83 0.928 0.143
bansa Nopethebard 0.929 0.143
Nekoatl EricF 0.070 0.140
FrozenStorm CarpeGuitarrem 0.932 0.137
Nopethebard FrozenStorm 0.066 0.132
Nopethebard bansa 0.060 0.119
Nopethebard zhavier 0.047 0.093
EricF CarpeGuitarrem 0.963 0.074
zhavier Nopethebard 0.967 0.065
Nopethebard EricF 0.027 0.053
FrozenStorm Nopethebard 0.977 0.047
EricF Nopethebard 0.987 0.025

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.554
P2 0.446
Both 0.500

Overall mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.551
P2 0.449
Both 0.500

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
Nightmare 0.176 0.154 0.264
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline 0.123 0.068 0.115
[Blood]/Feral/Strength 0.120 0.102 0.109
[Future/Present]/Peace 0.067 0.183 0.099
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength 0.081 0.122 0.098
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth 0.050 0.183 0.090
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse 0.183 0.034 0.079
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire 0.072 0.077 0.064
MonoRed 0.090 0.057 0.052
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline 0.038 0.021 0.029

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
zhavier 0.363 0.302 0.390
FrozenStorm 0.276 0.311 0.275
bansa 0.170 0.213 0.203
Steve44 0.089 0.081 0.086
Unity 0.025 0.056 0.023
hardy83 0.057 0.010 0.018
Bomber678 0.008 0.016 0.004
charnel_mouse 0.010 0.008 0.002
Nekoatl 0.001 0.003 0.000
CarpeGuitarrem 0.000 0.000 0.000

Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation for normal finished matches

forecast Brier score
always 5-5 0.250
prior expected score 0.196
model 0.228

P1 P2 matchup P1 wins
FrozenStorm CarpeGuitarrem 0.932 1/1
bansa Nopethebard 0.929 1/1
Steve44 Nopethebard 0.914 1/1
zhavier CarpeGuitarrem 0.910 1/1
FrozenStorm hardy83 0.894 1/1
zhavier charnel_mouse 0.793 1/1
zhavier Bomber678 0.748 0/1
bansa Bomber678 0.720 1/1
Unity CarpeGuitarrem 0.675 1/1
Steve44 Nekoatl 0.620 1/1
FrozenStorm bansa 0.611 0/1
hardy83 Nekoatl 0.610 1/1
Bomber678 Steve44 0.598 1/1
zhavier FrozenStorm 0.580 1/1
charnel_mouse Bomber678 0.555 0/1
Bomber678 Unity 0.503 1/1
charnel_mouse Unity 0.463 1/1
CarpeGuitarrem hardy83 0.431 1/1
Steve44 bansa 0.429 0/1
CarpeGuitarrem Steve44 0.428 1/1
bansa zhavier 0.396 1/2
CarpeGuitarrem charnel_mouse 0.392 1/1
hardy83 bansa 0.324 0/1
Bomber678 bansa 0.323 1/1
Bomber678 FrozenStorm 0.320 1/1
Unity FrozenStorm 0.257 0/1
Bomber678 zhavier 0.253 1/1
Nekoatl zhavier 0.211 0/1
charnel_mouse EricF 0.144 1/1