Entrants

player	deck
FrozenStorm	Nightmare
Bomber678	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength
zhavier	[Blood]/Feral/Strength
charnel_mouse	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline
EricF	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing
CarpeGuitarrem	MonoRed
Nekoatl	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth
Nopethebard	MonoRed
hardy83	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse
Unity	[Future/Present]/Peace
Steve44	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline
bansa	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire

Completed matches

round	player1	player2	deck1	deck2	victor	victory
1	Bomber678	Steve44	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	Bomber678	normal
1	bansa	Nopethebard	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	MonoRed	bansa	normal
1	Unity	CarpeGuitarrem	[Future/Present]/Peace	MonoRed	Unity	normal
1	Nekoatl	zhavier	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	zhavier	normal
1	FrozenStorm	hardy83	Nightmare	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	FrozenStorm	normal
1	charnel_mouse	EricF	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	charnel_mouse	normal
2	Bomber678	Unity	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Future/Present]/Peace	Bomber678	normal
2	zhavier	FrozenStorm	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	Nightmare	zhavier	normal
2	Steve44	Nopethebard	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	MonoRed	Steve44	normal
2	CarpeGuitarrem	charnel_mouse	MonoRed	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	CarpeGuitarrem	normal
2	hardy83	Nekoatl	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	hardy83	normal
3	zhavier	Bomber678	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	Bomber678	normal
3	charnel_mouse	Unity	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Future/Present]/Peace	charnel_mouse	normal
3	hardy83	bansa	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	bansa	normal
3	FrozenStorm	CarpeGuitarrem	Nightmare	MonoRed	FrozenStorm	normal
3	Steve44	Nekoatl	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	Steve44	normal
4	bansa	zhavier	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	zhavier	normal
4	charnel_mouse	Bomber678	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	Bomber678	normal
4	Unity	FrozenStorm	[Future/Present]/Peace	Nightmare	FrozenStorm	normal
4	CarpeGuitarrem	Steve44	MonoRed	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	CarpeGuitarrem	normal
4	Nopethebard	hardy83	MonoRed	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	hardy83	forfeit
5	Bomber678	FrozenStorm	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	Nightmare	Bomber678	normal
5	Steve44	bansa	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	bansa	normal
5	zhavier	charnel_mouse	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	zhavier	normal
5	CarpeGuitarrem	hardy83	MonoRed	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	CarpeGuitarrem	normal
6	bansa	Bomber678	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	bansa	normal
6	zhavier	CarpeGuitarrem	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	MonoRed	zhavier	normal
7	Bomber678	zhavier	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	Bomber678	normal
7	FrozenStorm	bansa	Nightmare	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	bansa	normal
8	Bomber678	bansa	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	Bomber678	normal
9	bansa	zhavier	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	bansa	normal

Matchup plots

Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)

Deck only

Overall

Matchup tables

Deck-only

D1	D2	matchup	fairness
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.499	0.998
MonoRed	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.499	0.997
MonoRed	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.502	0.996
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.504	0.993
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.495	0.991
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.507	0.986
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.511	0.978
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.512	0.975
MonoRed	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.513	0.973
MonoRed	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.484	0.968
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	Nightmare	0.483	0.966
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	Nightmare	0.517	0.966
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.483	0.966
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.518	0.964
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.518	0.963
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.519	0.961
[Future/Present]/Peace	MonoRed	0.480	0.960
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.525	0.951
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.475	0.949
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.526	0.949
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.473	0.947
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.527	0.945
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.471	0.942
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.529	0.941
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.530	0.939
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.470	0.939
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.531	0.939
Nightmare	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.531	0.938
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.531	0.938
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	Nightmare	0.468	0.936
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.533	0.934
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.534	0.932
Nightmare	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.534	0.932
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.466	0.932
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.465	0.930
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	Nightmare	0.537	0.927
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	MonoRed	0.463	0.926
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.537	0.926
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.540	0.921
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	MonoRed	0.542	0.916
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.542	0.916
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.542	0.916
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.543	0.913
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.546	0.907
MonoRed	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.547	0.905
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.449	0.899
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.551	0.898
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	Nightmare	0.552	0.896
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.444	0.889
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	Nightmare	0.442	0.884
[Future/Present]/Peace	Nightmare	0.441	0.882
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.559	0.882
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.441	0.881
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.561	0.878
MonoRed	Nightmare	0.563	0.874
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.436	0.871
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.571	0.857
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.578	0.844
MonoRed	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.579	0.842
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	MonoRed	0.581	0.838
Nightmare	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.582	0.835
MonoRed	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.416	0.832
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.415	0.831
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.415	0.829
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.586	0.828
Nightmare	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.586	0.827
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.590	0.821
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.591	0.818
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.594	0.812
Nightmare	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.595	0.810
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	Nightmare	0.597	0.806
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.599	0.802
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.601	0.798
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.602	0.797
MonoRed	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.602	0.795
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.605	0.791
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.605	0.791
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.606	0.788
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.608	0.785
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.608	0.785
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.608	0.785
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.611	0.778
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.613	0.774
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.617	0.766
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.618	0.765
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.619	0.762
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	Nightmare	0.380	0.760
Nightmare	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.624	0.753
MonoRed	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.625	0.750
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.629	0.742
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	MonoRed	0.632	0.735
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	0.364	0.728
Nightmare	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.638	0.724
Nightmare	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.639	0.722
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.645	0.710
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.656	0.688
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.657	0.685
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.663	0.674
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	MonoRed	0.664	0.673
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	MonoRed	0.667	0.667
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Future/Present]/Peace	0.668	0.663
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.670	0.661
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	MonoRed	0.686	0.629
[Future/Present]/Peace	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.691	0.618
Nightmare	MonoRed	0.693	0.613
[Demonology/Necromancy]/Bashing	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.694	0.612
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	MonoRed	0.706	0.588
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.707	0.586
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.714	0.571
Nightmare	[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.741	0.518

Overall

P1	P2	matchup	fairness
Steve44	Unity	0.503	0.995
Bomber678	Unity	0.503	0.993
Unity	charnel_mouse	0.496	0.992
charnel_mouse	Steve44	0.513	0.973
Nekoatl	hardy83	0.519	0.962
hardy83	Bomber678	0.520	0.959
FrozenStorm	zhavier	0.523	0.954
Unity	Steve44	0.525	0.949
charnel_mouse	Unity	0.463	0.926
bansa	FrozenStorm	0.541	0.919
CarpeGuitarrem	Nekoatl	0.455	0.911
charnel_mouse	Bomber678	0.555	0.890
Steve44	charnel_mouse	0.557	0.887
CarpeGuitarrem	hardy83	0.431	0.862
Steve44	bansa	0.429	0.858
Unity	Nekoatl	0.571	0.857
CarpeGuitarrem	Steve44	0.428	0.856
hardy83	Unity	0.423	0.845
zhavier	FrozenStorm	0.580	0.840
CarpeGuitarrem	Unity	0.419	0.838
zhavier	bansa	0.581	0.837
Steve44	Bomber678	0.584	0.831
hardy83	charnel_mouse	0.584	0.831
Nekoatl	Bomber678	0.404	0.807
Bomber678	hardy83	0.597	0.806
Bomber678	Steve44	0.598	0.804
charnel_mouse	Nekoatl	0.598	0.804
Bomber678	charnel_mouse	0.603	0.794
bansa	zhavier	0.396	0.792
CarpeGuitarrem	charnel_mouse	0.392	0.785
bansa	EricF	0.391	0.782
hardy83	Nekoatl	0.610	0.780
FrozenStorm	bansa	0.611	0.778
Steve44	zhavier	0.383	0.765
Steve44	Nekoatl	0.620	0.760
hardy83	Steve44	0.622	0.756
charnel_mouse	bansa	0.374	0.748
Unity	Bomber678	0.627	0.746
Nekoatl	Unity	0.371	0.742
FrozenStorm	EricF	0.367	0.735
Bomber678	Nekoatl	0.648	0.704
EricF	FrozenStorm	0.649	0.701
Nekoatl	charnel_mouse	0.345	0.689
zhavier	EricF	0.342	0.684
Nekoatl	Steve44	0.337	0.673
Unity	bansa	0.335	0.670
charnel_mouse	zhavier	0.327	0.654
Unity	CarpeGuitarrem	0.675	0.651
hardy83	bansa	0.324	0.648
Bomber678	bansa	0.323	0.646
Bomber678	FrozenStorm	0.320	0.640
EricF	zhavier	0.682	0.637
hardy83	FrozenStorm	0.314	0.628
hardy83	zhavier	0.311	0.623
Nekoatl	CarpeGuitarrem	0.701	0.598
charnel_mouse	hardy83	0.705	0.591
bansa	Unity	0.710	0.580
Bomber678	CarpeGuitarrem	0.714	0.573
Steve44	hardy83	0.716	0.569
hardy83	CarpeGuitarrem	0.717	0.567
bansa	Bomber678	0.720	0.560
Steve44	FrozenStorm	0.276	0.552
CarpeGuitarrem	Nopethebard	0.730	0.539
Unity	hardy83	0.733	0.534
Nekoatl	bansa	0.262	0.525
EricF	bansa	0.739	0.521
Unity	FrozenStorm	0.257	0.515
CarpeGuitarrem	Bomber678	0.255	0.511
Bomber678	zhavier	0.253	0.505
zhavier	Bomber678	0.748	0.504
FrozenStorm	Steve44	0.757	0.486
zhavier	Steve44	0.758	0.485
Nopethebard	CarpeGuitarrem	0.242	0.484
charnel_mouse	FrozenStorm	0.231	0.462
bansa	Steve44	0.774	0.453
Unity	zhavier	0.225	0.451
Nopethebard	Nekoatl	0.225	0.450
Nopethebard	Steve44	0.224	0.447
zhavier	Unity	0.783	0.435
Nopethebard	hardy83	0.215	0.431
Nekoatl	zhavier	0.211	0.423
Nopethebard	Unity	0.210	0.420
zhavier	charnel_mouse	0.793	0.414
FrozenStorm	Bomber678	0.796	0.409
FrozenStorm	Unity	0.799	0.402
Steve44	CarpeGuitarrem	0.800	0.401
charnel_mouse	CarpeGuitarrem	0.802	0.396
hardy83	EricF	0.193	0.386
bansa	charnel_mouse	0.809	0.382
Bomber678	EricF	0.191	0.382
bansa	hardy83	0.818	0.365
Nopethebard	charnel_mouse	0.179	0.359
CarpeGuitarrem	FrozenStorm	0.177	0.354
Steve44	EricF	0.177	0.354
bansa	CarpeGuitarrem	0.823	0.353
FrozenStorm	charnel_mouse	0.823	0.353
EricF	Steve44	0.829	0.342
bansa	Nekoatl	0.830	0.340
FrozenStorm	Nekoatl	0.841	0.318
CarpeGuitarrem	bansa	0.152	0.304
zhavier	Nekoatl	0.852	0.297
zhavier	hardy83	0.852	0.296
Unity	Nopethebard	0.853	0.293
charnel_mouse	EricF	0.144	0.287
Nekoatl	Nopethebard	0.871	0.259
CarpeGuitarrem	zhavier	0.126	0.252
EricF	Bomber678	0.876	0.249
hardy83	Nopethebard	0.877	0.245
Bomber678	Nopethebard	0.879	0.242
Unity	EricF	0.119	0.237
Nekoatl	FrozenStorm	0.114	0.228
EricF	charnel_mouse	0.886	0.228
Nopethebard	Bomber678	0.107	0.214
FrozenStorm	hardy83	0.894	0.212
EricF	Unity	0.896	0.209
zhavier	CarpeGuitarrem	0.910	0.179
EricF	Nekoatl	0.912	0.177
Steve44	Nopethebard	0.914	0.172
charnel_mouse	Nopethebard	0.923	0.155
CarpeGuitarrem	EricF	0.077	0.153
EricF	hardy83	0.928	0.143
bansa	Nopethebard	0.929	0.143
Nekoatl	EricF	0.070	0.140
FrozenStorm	CarpeGuitarrem	0.932	0.137
Nopethebard	FrozenStorm	0.066	0.132
Nopethebard	bansa	0.060	0.119
Nopethebard	zhavier	0.047	0.093
EricF	CarpeGuitarrem	0.963	0.074
zhavier	Nopethebard	0.967	0.065
Nopethebard	EricF	0.027	0.053
FrozenStorm	Nopethebard	0.977	0.047
EricF	Nopethebard	0.987	0.025

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player	Win probability
P1	0.554
P2	0.446
Both	0.500

Overall mean win rate

Player	Win probability
P1	0.551
P2	0.449
Both	0.500

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck	P1	P2	Both
Nightmare	0.176	0.154	0.264
[Disease/Necromancy]/Discipline	0.123	0.068	0.115
[Blood]/Feral/Strength	0.120	0.102	0.109
[Future/Present]/Peace	0.067	0.183	0.099
[Finesse]/Anarchy/Strength	0.081	0.122	0.098
[Demonology/Disease]/Truth	0.050	0.183	0.090
[Discipline]/Anarchy/Finesse	0.183	0.034	0.079
[Finesse]/Blood/Fire	0.072	0.077	0.064
MonoRed	0.090	0.057	0.052
[Demonology/Disease]/Discipline	0.038	0.021	0.029

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck	P1	P2	Both
zhavier	0.363	0.302	0.390
FrozenStorm	0.276	0.311	0.275
bansa	0.170	0.213	0.203
Steve44	0.089	0.081	0.086
Unity	0.025	0.056	0.023
hardy83	0.057	0.010	0.018
Bomber678	0.008	0.016	0.004
charnel_mouse	0.010	0.008	0.002
Nekoatl	0.001	0.003	0.000
CarpeGuitarrem	0.000	0.000	0.000

Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation for normal finished matches

forecast	Brier score
always 5-5	0.250
prior expected score	0.196
model	0.228

P1	P2	matchup	P1 wins
FrozenStorm	CarpeGuitarrem	0.932	1/1
bansa	Nopethebard	0.929	1/1
Steve44	Nopethebard	0.914	1/1
zhavier	CarpeGuitarrem	0.910	1/1
FrozenStorm	hardy83	0.894	1/1
zhavier	charnel_mouse	0.793	1/1
zhavier	Bomber678	0.748	0/1
bansa	Bomber678	0.720	1/1
Unity	CarpeGuitarrem	0.675	1/1
Steve44	Nekoatl	0.620	1/1
FrozenStorm	bansa	0.611	0/1
hardy83	Nekoatl	0.610	1/1
Bomber678	Steve44	0.598	1/1
zhavier	FrozenStorm	0.580	1/1
charnel_mouse	Bomber678	0.555	0/1
Bomber678	Unity	0.503	1/1
charnel_mouse	Unity	0.463	1/1
CarpeGuitarrem	hardy83	0.431	1/1
Steve44	bansa	0.429	0/1
CarpeGuitarrem	Steve44	0.428	1/1
bansa	zhavier	0.396	1/2
CarpeGuitarrem	charnel_mouse	0.392	1/1
hardy83	bansa	0.324	0/1
Bomber678	bansa	0.323	1/1
Bomber678	FrozenStorm	0.320	1/1
Unity	FrozenStorm	0.257	0/1
Bomber678	zhavier	0.253	1/1
Nekoatl	zhavier	0.211	0/1
charnel_mouse	EricF	0.144	1/1